This report reviews the evidence documenting the lasting harm, or scarring, associated with severe and lengthy economic downturns. Overly aggressive action by the Federal Reserve to stem inflation at this point could induce a recession that could reverse the benefits of recent gains and cause greater harm to those who can least afford it. But while inflation has taken a real toll on the economic well-being of American families, it is critical to acknowledge the enormous short- and long-term benefits resulting from the federal response to the pandemic, which set the stage for a robust and rapid recovery, while providing a lifeline for families during the worst of the crisis. 3 Economists will debate the extent to which the magnitude of federal pandemic relief contributed to rising inflation.
The causes of rising inflation largely reflect problems on the supply side of the economy, including disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, import bottlenecks due in part to the ongoing impact of the pandemic, and changes in consumer spending patterns due to the pandemic. The emergence of high inflation in the United States and around the globe has sparked discussion as to whether pandemic relief efforts overheated the economy, fueling recent price hikes. As discussed below, persistently weak labor markets following the Great Recession led to negative employment and earnings outcomes and widening inequality that continued long after the downturn ended.
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Research on the Great Recession suggests that the subsequent slow recovery, with the economy taking years to return to full employment, not only inflicted pain on workers during those years, but also left scars. The labor market’s speedy rebound is important. Importantly, recent wage and job growth has been strong among those who fared the worst after the Great Recession: young, low-wage, and nonwhite workers. 1 In contrast, it took 76 months for employment to reach its pre-recession peak after the Great Recession. By August 2022, the economy regained all the jobs that had been lost since April 2020.
economy recovered swiftly and strongly from the pandemic-induced downturn, with employment surpassing its pre-pandemic peak in record time. Building off the lessons learned from the response to the Great Recession and motivated by the unique considerations of a global pandemic, lawmakers approved a massive federal response that protected the economic security of families and communities, mitigated the impact of the downturn, and-by enabling many workers to stay home during the bleakest moments of the pandemic-saved tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of lives. economy and caused unprecedented changes to nearly every aspect of American life. Stemming the spread of the coronavirus required the shutdown of large segments of the U.S.
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